Trump-Xi zirvesi öncesi müttefikler ve Çin arasındaki gerilimler yeniden gündemde

Kısaca

Çin’in küresel ticaret fazlası 1,2 trilyon dolar olarak öngörülüyor; Amerikan baskıları sürüyor Görünen isimler: Trump ve Xi Jinping zirvesiyle ilgili tansiyon ve müttefikler arası uyum tartışmaları Piyasa etkisi: kombinasyon riskler ve olası değişimlerin izlenmesi gerekiyor; etkili politika adımları izlensin

Ana mesele

ABD ile Çin arasındaki baskı ve müttefik uyumundaki kırılma, zirve öncesi tansiyonu artırıyor

Ne değişti?

Ülkeler arası dengeler değişirken Çin’in küresel ticaret avantajı ön plana çıkıyor

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Okuyucular, ABD-Çin geriliminin küresel piyasalar ve tedarik zincirleri üzerindeki etkileri konusunda uyarılabilir

Ne oldu?

Çin, dünya çapında ticaret bağlarını derinleştirdi ve güç devşirme kapasitesini artırdı; 2025 için ticaret fazlası 1,2 trilyon dolar olarak öngörülüyor.

Neden şimdi?

ABD seçimi yaklaşırken Biden-Çin politikalarının netleşmesi ve müttefiklerle uyum ekseninin yeniden biçimlenmesi gerektiği için.

Neden önemli?

Çin’in küresel finansal ve ticari etkisi büyüyor; bu durum ABD’nin küresel nüfuzunu ve ortak güvenlik politikalarını etkileyebilir.

Kimler etkileniyor?

• yabancı yatırımcılar
• uluslararası ticaret ortakları

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Ticaret ve finans piyasalarında belirsizlik artabilir; teknoloji ve enerji alanlarında tedarik zinciri baskıları gündeme gelebilir.

Riskler

• Ticaret savaşlarının uzaması
• Müttefik ülkelerin ortak yaklaşımı konusunda bölünmeler
• Piyasalarda volatilite artışı

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• ABD-Çin politikalarının yönü
• Müttefik ülkelerin konum değiştirmeleri
• Çin’in teknoloji ve doğal kaynak politikalarındaki yeni adımlar

Haberin tamamı

President Donald Trump has spent years trying to squeeze China — imposing tariffs, cutting off access to advanced technology and pressing U.S. allies to reduce their dependence on Beijing . When he begins meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Wednesday, he'll juxtapose the longstanding bluster with the pomp and circumstance the leaders lavish on each other.

And the two-day tête-à-tête will take place as Trump confronts a China that has proved harder to isolate and allies increasingly reluctant to line up behind the U.S. to do it.

Part of that is Beijing's doing. China has deepened trade ties around the world while building leverage of its own, most notably through rare earths . Its global trade surplus is on pace to top $1 trillion for a second straight year, reaching a record $1.2 trillion for 2025 even as its exports to the U.S. dropped.

But the shift also reflects Trump's approach. Since returning to office, fights over tariffs , defense spending and personal spats have strained relationships with traditional allies even as Trump has pursued a more transactional relationship with Xi.

Countries Washington has traditionally counted on to magnify its power are increasingly seeking room to maneuver between the world's two largest economies.

As a result, Trump enters Thursday's summit facing a test of whether strains with U.S. allies have made it harder to marshal American power against Xi.

"China is presenting itself to the world as the stable counterweight to an erratic and violent United States," said Ryan Hass , director of the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution think tank. "America retains unmatched power on the world stage, but leverage requires a united front and there are a shrinking number of countries willing to follow America's lead right now."

For decades, one of the U.S.'s biggest advantages over China has been its network of allies and partners. When the U.S. restricted technology or imposed sanctions, bringing major economies in Europe and Asia along made those measures harder for Beijing to evade.

China still lacks anything comparable: The Lowy Institute , an independent Australian foreign-policy think tank, scored the U.S. defense networks at 81.4 on a scale of 100, versus 18.9 for China in 2025. But Beijing does not need U.S. allies to switch sides to erode that advantage. It only needs them to become less willing to move with Washington, Hass and other China experts said.

"When democratic countries don't have public support for a counterpart, it raises the cost for leaders to align with the United States," Hass told CNBC. "It lowers the cost for leaders to defy the United States."

Trump has taken sledgehammer to relationships with allies. He's clashed with NATO over defense spending, threatened to reduce the U.S. troop presence in much of Europe while announcing plans Tuesday to add troops in Greenland after threatening to take over the island and imposed tariffs on the U.S.'s northern neighbor Canada .

"Although our biggest economic complaints regarding China's economy are shared by many of our allies and partners, the current U.S. approach is to attack all of those countries ... instead of forming a common front," said Melanie Hart , senior director of the Atlantic Council's Global China Hub.

Meanwhile, public confidence in the U.S. as a reliable partner has fallen. In Canada, the share of people who described the U.S. as a reliable partner fell from 83% in 2022 to 35% this year, according to Pew Research Center in June. In Germany, the share who said Washington considers other countries' interests when making foreign policy fell from 60% in 2023 to 23%.

Canada this month was invited to be the first " associate member " of the European Union as Prime Minister Mark Carney's government seeks deeper defense ties with Europe and less reliance on the U.S.

Foreign allies "worry that as soon as they make a deal with us, Washington will undercut them in some way that they will then regret," Hart told CNBC.

China has sought to capitalize on that opening, not necessarily by persuading countries to choose Beijing over Washington, but by making the choice less binary.

The country remains a U.S. security partner and a strategic competitor of China, with troops from both countries still deployed along their disputed Himalayan border . Yet Xi visited India this month for the first time in seven years as the two countries took what Tanvi Madan, a senior fellow at Brookings, called "baby steps" toward stabilizing relations.

Bilateral trade reached a record $155.6 billion in 2025, according to Chinese data , and Xi and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi agreed to strengthen business and transport links despite unresolved security disputes.

"Uncertainty over Trump's approach to Beijing and strains in India's own relationship with the U.S. have given India another reason to keep relations with China on steadier ground," Madan told CNBC. "Even a tactical détente between the U.S. India and China can have downstream impacts on India's strategic environment.

The changing balance of leverage is most tangible in the economic relationship.

Trump's tariffs targeted China's reliance on U.S. buyers, while U.S. export controls targeted a deeper dependency: the advanced chips and manufacturing equipment Beijing needs to compete at the technological frontier.

Those pressure points remain. But Beijing has developed leverage of its own. China placed seven rare-earth elements under export controls last year, forcing companies to seek government approval to ship them abroad. China controls roughly 70% of global rare-earth mining and more than 87% of refining and production in 2024, according to the U.S. Geological Survey .

In short order, Ford halted Explorer production in Chicago for a week amid magnet shortages, while Japanese and European auto suppliers shut production lines awaiting materials.

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Kaynaklar

• CNBC - Top News