Trump vergileri ABD ekonomisini bozmaz iddiası piyasalarda güveni sürdürüyor

Kısaca

OECD uyarıları ve küresel borç servisi, 3,5 trilyon doların üzerinde mali yük oluşturuyor ABD ekonomisinin dayanıklılığına vurgu yapan veriler, güveni sürdürüyor US vergi politikaları ve piyasa tepkisi, kısa vadede volatiliteyi sınırlayabilir

Ana mesele

Trump vergileri ABD ekonomisini bozmaz; ekonomik dayanıklılık vurgulanıyor

Ne değişti?

İddia, vergi politikalarının büyümeyi bozmadığını öne sürüyor; yeni bir güven unsuru olarak ele alınıyor

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Okuyucuya etkisi: piyasalarda güvenin sürmesi ihtimali, yatırımcı ధhr

Ne oldu?

Trump vergilerinin ABD ekonomisini bozmayacağı yönündeki iddia temel alındı.

Neden şimdi?

Küresel borç ve faiz dalgası karşısında güvenin korunması kritik.

Neden önemli?

Piyasa güveninin sürmesi, yatırım ve kredilendirme koşullarını etkiler.

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Yatırımcılar
• Finansal kurumlar
• Politika yapıcılar

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Piyasa güveni ve borç/gelir göstergeleri üzerinde etkiler

Riskler

• Gidişat belirsizliği artarsa güven kırılabilir
• Dolar kuvartz konumunu korursa riskler artar

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• OECD uyarıları ve borç göstergeleri
• ABD vergi politikaları ve ek hacimler
• Piyasa tepkileri ve Fed iletişimleri

Haberin tamamı

EuroThe potential euro bounce was foiled by the yield saga. It can easily reach the previous low at 1.1324, or go all the way to the channel bottom at 1.1178. Something can intervene to prevent the move continuing, but it will have to include relief in yields.OutlookThe S&P PMI at the highest in years has one implication not being exploited—it shows that not even the Trump tariffs cannot harm the resilient US economy.

That growth is led by one sector is a worry, but not fatal.We also see that wishful thinking about oil prices is a snare and a delusion.It’s interesting that the gold price has not moved down commensurably with the yield crisis.Off on the side of the table, Norway raised rates to 4.5% with a hawkish tone. Sweden kept rates on hold but hinted a hike this year is likely. The Swiss National Bank maintained the zero rate but took away the threat of intervention.

Its inflation forecast is rising.The bond crisis is real, although it should back down a little.

Reuters: “The debt market mood was soured further on Wednesday by warnings about ​rising government debt levels from the OECD, while the Institute of International Finance said the global government debt servicing bill had risen to more than $3.5 trillion - bigger than spending on​defence, energy or AI.“What's more, the bond angst flew in the face of the latest US Treasury buyback programme, which some market players reckoned was now becoming more of an irritant than a balm.”The Atlanta Fed GDPNOW is 5.1% for Q3.

Can you have too much growth? Sounds silly, but the answer is yes when other conditions are in paly—single sector concentration, too much debt both public and private (with some of it hidden), a war that won’t end, a reckless and stupid US president, and no end in sight for inflation.ForecastWe may get some backing down in the near-term, but it’s going to get worse before it gets better.

It’s hard to see how the dollar loses its allure under these circs.We think the trading world would like to sell dollars as a signal of disapproval for Trump’s many horrendous words and deeds. Example—the judge just reversed the press ban and yet one news outlet was barred again this morning. And it just doesn’t work that way—disapproval of a really bad White House doesn’t affect the dollar. We saw it decades ago when Gingrich shut down the government and we have it now.

Kaynaklar

• FXStreet