Sterlin ABD Doları Karşısında 12 Haftanın Düşüklerini Test Etti: PMI Verileri ve Dolar Güçlü Kalıyor

Kısaca

Sterlin 12 haftanın düşüklerini test ediyor; GBP/USD 1,3270 yakınında işlem görüyor ABD dolarının küresel güçlenme tablosu etkili PMI verileri karışık; imalat güçlenirken hizmetler zayıfladı ileri izlemede FED ve İran barış görüşmeleri dikkatle takip edilecek

Ana mesele

Sterlin, ABD dolarının güçlenmesiyle 12 haftanın en düşük seviyelerine yakın seyrediyor

Ne değişti?

IMF/PMI verileriyle oluşan karışık tablo, doların güçlenmesini destekliyor

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Piyasa katılımcıları için kısa vadeli oynaklık artabilir

Ne oldu?

GBP/USD yaklaşık 1,3270 civarında 12 haftanın en düşükleri yakınında seyretti.

Neden şimdi?

ABD dolarının güçlenmesi ve Fed sıkılaşma beklentileri baskıyı artırdı; PMI verileri karışık da olsa doları destekledi.

Neden önemli?

Küresel döviz piyasalarında volatilite artabilir; Türkiye gibi gelişmekte olan piyasalar etkilenebilir.

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Küresel yatırımcılar
• Türkiye'deki kur ve sermaye piyasası katılımcıları
• AB/İngiltere ekonomisi takas ve ihracat odaklı şirketler

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Küresel döviz ve FX piyasalarında baskı; emtia ve dış ticaret odaklı şirketlerde değer kayıpları görülebilir.

Riskler

• Döviz volatilitesi artabilir
• Fed politikalarıyla enerji ve tahvil piyasalarında dalgalanma büyüyebilir
• İran barış görüşmeleri belirsizliği sürebilir

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• Fed iletişim dili ve yönlendirmelerindeki değişim
• PMI verilerinin sonraki aylarda nasıl seyrettiği
• İran barış görüşmeleri ile ABD-İran ilişkilerindeki gelişmeler

Haberin tamamı

GBP/USD accelerates its decline and tests 12-week lows in the 1.3270 area.The US Dollar is outperforming its peers amid a mix of Fed tightening hopes and optimism about a US-Iran peace deal.In the UK, manufacturing activity expanded unexpectedly; services activity fell short of the market's expectations in September.The British Pound (GBP) accelerates its decline against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, with the GBP/USD pair trading a few pips above 1.3272, its lowest price since July 2. The Greenback maintains its firm tone across the board amid Federal Reserve’s (Fed) tightening hopes and optimism about a fresh attempt to reach a peace deal with Iran while, in the UK, mixed business activity figures have failed to lift the Pound.Preliminary UK S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures for September, released earlier in the day, revealed that manufacturing activity improved to 52.0 from 51.7 in August, against expectations of a mild slowdown to 51.6.Services activity, however, slowed to 51.7, from 52.5 in August, exceeding the market consensus, which had anticipated a 52.0 print. This has pushed the Composite Index down to 51.7 in September, from 52.5 in the previous month.Fed tightening hopes US-Iran peace negotiations are buoying US DollarThe US Dollar, on the other hand, maintains a firm bid tone, fuelled by market expectations of further Fed monetary tightening in the coming months and investors' optimism about the outcome of fresh attempts to reach a peace deal with Iran.Strategists at ING highlight that the Dollar “continues to show very good resilience to lower energy prices and a risk-friendly environment,” arguing that this is “another sign that the Fed story is dominant.” ING Experts observe that Richmond Fed President Thomas supported the central bank's hawkish stance, affirming that “a single rate hike may not be enough to bring inflation under control.”Investors are focusing on the United Nations General Assembly this week, where US and Iranian officials are negotiating on the sidelines. The US Special Envoy, Steve Wickoff, has confirmed that contacts are going on, and US President Donald Trump was more explicit, stating that the US had ”a very good meeting, a very productive meeting” with Iranian officials, and that there was “a lot of momentum” towards an agreement.

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by S&P Global, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the UK’s manufacturing sector. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at private-sector companies. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Pound Sterling (GBP). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity among goods producers is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for GBP.

The Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by S&P Global, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the UK’s services sector. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the services economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Pound Sterling (GBP). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity among service providers is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for GBP.

Kaynaklar

• FXStreet