Schnabel, enerji geçişinin etkisinin ECB varsayımından daha kalıcı olduğuna işaret etti

Kısaca

Enerji geçişinin etkisi beklenenden uzun sürüyor; 10Y getirileri yüksek seviyelerde dalgalanıyor. Küresel büyümeye yönelik işaretler güçlüyken enerji maliyetlerinin etkisi sürecek görünüyor. Gelecek politika kararları için enerji maliyeti ve enflasyon beklentileri kritik gündemde olacak

Ana mesele

Enerji maliyetinin geçiş etkisi, ECB öngörülerinden daha uzun sürüyor

Ne değişti?

ECB varsayımından daha uzun süren enerji geçişinin kanıtlarının altını çizdi

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Piyasalar için borçlanma maliyeti ve getiriler ima edilenden daha uzun süre yükseliş baskısı altında

Ne oldu?

FXStreet kaynağına göre Schnabel, enerji geçişinin etkisinin ECB öngörüsünden daha kalıcı olduğuna işaret etti

Neden şimdi?

Enerji maliyetlerinin geçiş etkisi 2020’ler sonrası rekabetçi dinamikleri değiştirebilecek ölçüde sürüyor

Neden önemli?

Uzun vadeli enflasyon ve borçlanma maliyetleri üzerinde baskıyı artırabilir, yatırım kararlarını etkiler

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Kamu borçlanma piyasaları
• Kamu ve özel yatırımcılar

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Tahvil piyasasında getirilerin kalıcı yükseklik riski, enflasyon beklentileriyle korelasyon

Riskler

• Enerji fiyatları sürpriz baskılar yaratabilir
• Politika iletişimi enflasyon beklentilerini yeniden şekillendirebilir

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• ECB iletişim politika yönü
• Enerji maliyeti göstergeleri
• Tahvil getirilerindeki hareketlerin yeni düzeyi

Haberin tamamı

EU mid-market update: Long-end selloff now carries a US growth justification behind it; Schnabel concedes energy pass-through is more persistent than the ECB assumed; Norges hikes while SNB holds at zero; US-China truce extended only to 10th Jan with rare earths unresolved.Notes/observations- Yesterday finally gave 5% Treasuries a domestic macro number sturdy enough to stand next to them.

The US flash composite PMI jumped to 58.4 from 56.0, the strongest since July 2021 and consistent, in S&P Global’s mapping, with roughly 5% annualised GDP growth; employment growth was the fastest in more than four years, while backlogs and supply delays pushed input-cost growth toward a four-year high.

The 10Y subsequently traded 5.14%, its highest since 2007, with the move looking strikingly orderly for a level that repeatedly broke markets in 2023: three-month 10Y options have recently carried only about 79.5bp of annualised volatility versus 134bp the last time yields approached 5%. That changes the composition of the selloff.

Fiscal supply, oil and term premium are still there, but a private economy printing a 58-handle while the Atlanta Fed tracks near 5% gives investors less reason to expect growth itself to rescue duration. Five percent is becoming expensive money that the economy is, inconveniently for bondholders, still demonstrating it can pay for now.- Trump and Xi enter today’s White House meeting after Bessent quietly removed the tariff deadline that was supposed to force an agreement.

The Busan truce, due to expire November 10, is now extended only to January 10, so neither president needs to manufacture a tariff breakthrough today merely to stop the clock. What remains is harder to tariff around: China’s grip on rare-earth magnets, US affiliate export controls, Taiwan, agricultural/energy purchases and the still-unbuilt AI incident channel that Bessent and He Lifeng discussed over the weekend.

Beijing controls roughly 70% of rare-earth mining, 85% of refining and around 90% of magnet/alloy production, while Washington can still determine how much frontier semiconductor capability reaches Chinese firms. The financial system is considerably less separated than the technology rhetoric suggests—US banks have helped underwrite $17.2B of Chinese high-tech equity issuance this year, while mainland/Hong Kong holdings of US equities exceed $750B.

Tariffs have been warehoused until January; today’s bargaining sits in things that cannot be recreated quickly by changing a customs schedule.- Diesel is increasingly trading a different war from Brent. Crude can respond immediately to a Hormuz rumour because additional barrels can be transferred, rerouted or released; distillates are constrained by refinery capacity, low inventories and export policy.

US diesel stocks entered September at their lowest seasonal level since 1982, Russia has extended restrictions on diesel/marine-fuel exports through month-end, and Washington is now discussing whether restricting US diesel exports could ease domestic pump prices. That last step would redistribute scarcity rather than manufacture a gallon: foreign buyers would bid harder for European/Asian barrels while US refiners lose part of the export arbitrage that encourages maximum runs.

It also explains yesterday’s peculiar tape—Brent could touch $105.38 on renewed Gulf risk while diesel policy chatter carried its own inflation premium independent of whether Tehran ultimately lets more crude through the Strait. Crude is short a route; diesel is short finished product.- SNB, Riksbank and Norges Bank just delivered three quite different prices for the same energy shock.

The SNB stayed at 0% even after inflation rose to 0.8%, and still sees only 0.7%/0.8%/0.8% inflation in 2026–28; Switzerland has the luxury of using the franc and FX intervention as part of the tightening apparatus rather than paying for every imported oil shock with the policy rate.

Sweden held at 1.75%, but the hold conceals a sizeable rewrite of the path: the Riksbank now has the rate averaging 1.85% in Q4, 2.07% in Q1 and 2.38% by Q3 2027, versus 1.82%, 1.89% and 1.97% in June, and explicitly expects hikes to begin this year as stronger demand meets a weaker krona and lingering supply pressure. Norges Bank chose to spend the first 25bps immediately, lifting to 4.50% after a genuinely divided market had priced only about a two-thirds chance of a move.

Norway being an oil exporter does not make higher energy automatically disinflationary at home: wages, business costs and the NOK import channel still land in Norwegian CPI. Switzerland can let the currency absorb more of the shock; Sweden is moving the future curve; Norway moved the spot rate.

The superficially identical European energy problem is producing three different monetary trades.- Fed's Williams this early morning supplied a distinctly non-fiscal route to 5%-plus Treasuries: the productivity boom itself.

He still calls inflation the Fed’s unfinished job and says another hike by year-end is reasonable, but his comment that higher expected real rates account for an important part of the bond selloff sits directly beside his comparison of AI with the 1996–2005 productivity acceleration. AI appears twice in that arithmetic.

Today it is an enormous purchaser of electricity, chips, construction and capital; later, if Williams is right, it raises trend productivity and the return available on new investment. The second effect can suppress unit costs while simultaneously lifting the equilibrium real rate—so an AI boom can eventually be good news for inflation without returning the 10Y to the cheap-money yields investors remember.

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Kaynaklar

• FXStreet