S&P Global PMİ’ler ABD ekonomisinin direncini gösterecek mi? Eylül için ilk sinyaller

Kısaca

ABD PMİ’leri Eylül için hafif yumuşama gösterebilir; üretim 53,5’e, hizmetler 56’ya yaklaşabilir haber akışında ABD ekonomisinin dirençli göründüğü vurgulanıyor; piyasalar dikkatle izliyor piyasa etkisi olarak dolar güçlenme potansiyeli ve EUR/USD’de hareketler izlenebilir

Ana mesele

ABD ekonomisi Eylül’de PMİ’lerle kuvvetini koruyacak mı?

Ne değişti?

ABD’nin etkileyici büyüme eğilimi işaret ediyor; PMİ’ler net yön gösterecek

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Okuyucuya, ABD büyümesinin küresel piyasalara etkisi konusunda net bir yön sunabilir

Ne oldu?

S&P Global’in Eylül için ön verileri, üretim PMI’sinin 53,9’dan 53,5’e hafif düşebileceği; hizmet PMI’sinin ise 56,5’ten 56’ya inebileceği öngörüsü içeriyor.

Neden şimdi?

Veriler, resmi verilerin önüne geçebilecek erken işaretler sunuyor; Fed’in temkinli duruşu korunabilir.

Neden önemli?

PMİ’ler ekonomi yönü konusunda en erken sinyalleri verir; piyasa katılımcıları için yön tayini önemli.

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Yatırımcılar
• Merkez bankaları
• İş dünyası
• Tüketiciler

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Kısa vadede varlık fiyatları üzerinde volatilite, dolar tarafında güçlenme potansiyeli

Riskler

• Bozulabilecek görünümün kısa vadeli piyasa baskısı oluşturması
• ABD büyüme sürprizinin olmaması halinde güvenin sarsılması

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• PMİ ayrıntıları
• Fed mesajları ve faiz yönü
• EUR/USD hareketleri
• 200 günlük ortalamanın kırılıp kıralamayacağı

Haberin tamamı

The S&P Global flash PMIs for September are seen cooling a tad.Markets expect the Federal Reserve to maintain its cautious bias.EUR/USD appears subdued well south of the 1.1500 yardstick.S&P Global will release on Wednesday its preliminary September Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMIs) for the United States, based on surveys of top private sector executives, to provide an early indication of economic momentum. The data is expected to highlight US economic resilience.The report includes three measures: the Manufacturing PMI, the Services PMI, and the Composite PMI (a weighted combination of the two), each calibrated such that numbers above 50 indicate growth and readings below that threshold indicate contraction. These monthly snapshots, released far ahead of many official figures, analyse everything from production and export patterns to capacity utilisation, employment, and inventory levels, offering some of the earliest signs of the economy's direction.What can we expect from the next S&P Global PMI report?Investors anticipate some easing in September’s flash Manufacturing PMI from 53.9 to 53.5, while the Services PMI is projected to ease from 56.5 to 56.Although a minor decline may not scare markets, US business activity remains well in expansion territory, lending further support to the ongoing view of US ‘exceptionalism’.A significant upside surprise in both prints would likely bolster the US Dollar by confirming the idea of a healthy economy, hence reinforcing the Fed's cautious (hawkish?) stance.When will the September flash US S&P Global PMIs be released, and how could they affect EUR/USD?The S&P Global Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMIs report will be released at 13:45 GMT on Wednesday.Ahead of the release, Pablo Piovano, Senior Analyst at FXStreet, warns that further losses in EUR/USD should not be ruled out in the current context, particularly following the break below the critical 200-day SMA above 1.1620.If bulls manage to somehow regain the upper hand, the provisional 55-day and 100-day SMAs at 1.1526 and 1.1542, respectively, are expected to offer initial resistance prior to the more relevant 200-day SMA. Once the pair clears the latter, the next target emerges at the August top at 1.1711 (August 21).Alternatively, Piovano notes that the continuation of the selling pressure should meet initial support at the monthly floor of 1.1353 (July 28), prior to the 2026 bottom at 1.1324 (June 24).“Momentum indicators also favour extra declines as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) approaches the 31 level and the Average Directional Index (ADX) near 29 is indicative of a forceful trend,” Piovano adds.

The S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the US manufacturing sector. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at private-sector companies from the manufacturing sector. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. A reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the US Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity in the manufacturing sector is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for USD.

What is GDP and how is it recorded?

A country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the rate of growth of its economy over a given period of time, usually a quarter. The most reliable figures are those that compare GDP to the previous quarter e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q1 of 2023, or to the same period in the previous year, e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q2 of 2022.

Annualized quarterly GDP figures extrapolate the growth rate of the quarter as if it were constant for the rest of the year. These can be misleading, however, if temporary shocks impact growth in one quarter but are unlikely to last all year – such as happened in the first quarter of 2020 at the outbreak of the covid pandemic, when growth plummeted.

How does GDP influence currencies?

A higher GDP result is generally positive for a nation’s currency as it reflects a growing economy, which is more likely to produce goods and services that can be exported, as well as attracting higher foreign investment. By the same token, when GDP falls it is usually negative for the currency.

When an economy grows people tend to spend more, which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation with the side effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors, thus helping the local currency appreciate.

How does higher GDP impact the price of Gold?

When an economy grows and GDP is rising, people tend to spend more which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold versus placing the money in a cash deposit account. Therefore, a higher GDP growth rate is usually a bearish factor for Gold price.

Kaynaklar

• FXStreet