RBA Müdahalesi Gündemde: Tedarik Şokları ve Enflasyon Baskısıyla Para Politikası Nasıl Etkileniyor?

Kısaca

RBA Başkanı Bullock, tedarik şoklarının para politikasıyla başa çıkmanın zor olduğunu belirtti. Enflasyon riskleri odak noktası; işsizlik 4,5–5,0% aralığında. AUD/USD ~0,7122 civarında. Küresel etkiler izlenecek noktalar. Gözlenen politika etkileri şu an belirsiz; piyasa tepkisi sınırlı bir olumlu hava taşıyor. Gelecek günlerde enflasyon verileri ve politika işaretleri hareketleri belirleyecek; yatırımcılar dikkatli olmalı.

Ana mesele

Tedarik şokları enflasyon üzerinde ikinci etkileri tetiklediği için para politikalarının yönetimi zorlaşıyor.

Ne değişti?

Kamuoyuna yansıyan politika işaretleri netleşmeden, küresel reel getirilerde yükseliş baskısının sürdüğü değerlendiriliyor.

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Okuyucular kısa vadede para politikası tam anlamıyla netleşmeden kur ve varlık fiyatlarında dalgalanma görebilir.

Ne oldu?

RBA yetkilileri, tedarik şoklarının para politikası üzerinde zorlayıcı olduğunu belirtti ve enflasyon üzerindeki ikinci dalga etkileri vurguladı.

Neden şimdi?

Küresel enflasyon baskılarının sürmesi ve emsal politika mesajlarının değişkenliği nedeniyle şimdi net politika sinyalleri izleniyor.

Neden önemli?

Tedarik sıkıntıları, reel getirileri ve kur hareketlerini etkileyerek hem Avustralya iç piyasasını hem de küresel finansal akışları yönlendirir.

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Yatırımcılar
• Merkez bankası politikalarını izleyen kurumlar
• İş dünyası ve tüketiciler

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Varlık fiyatları üzerinde kısa vadeli dalgalanmalar, AUD üzerinde dalgalanma baskısı

Riskler

• Gözlenen enflasyon baskılarının sürmesi
• Politika netleşmeden piyasa volatilitesinin artması

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• Enflasyon verileri
• RBA politika toplantı notları
• Küresel getiriler ve döviz hareketleri
• AUD/USD hareketleri

Haberin tamamı

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock said in a statement released during the Asian trading session on Tuesday that supply shocks are difficult for monetary policy to deal with. Bullock added, “Policy needs to deal with second-round effects on inflation.”Additional remarksAI boom is adding to excess demand in Australian economy.Current correction in house prices in line with past episodes.Unemployment of 4.5% to 5.0% would probably ease pressure on inflation.Believe neutral rates are rising around the world, pushing up real bond yields.A$ is reflecting commodities, interest differentials.I am not signalling anything on policy, up to board.Inflation risks are materialising from Middle East, excess demand at home.Market reactionThere is a slight positive reaction by the Australian Dollar (AUD), following RBA Bullock's remarks. As of writing, AUD/USD is marginally higher to near 0.7122 after recovering early losses.

What is the Reserve Bank of Australia and how does it influence the Australian Dollar?

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Australia. Decisions are made by a board of governors at 11 meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings as required. The RBA’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means an inflation rate of 2-3%, but also “..to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people.” Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will strengthen the Australian Dollar (AUD) and vice versa. Other RBA tools include quantitative easing and tightening.

How does inflation data impact the value of the Australian Dollar?

While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for currencies since it lowers the value of money in general, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Moderately higher inflation now tends to lead central banks to put up their interest rates, which in turn has the effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in the case of Australia is the Aussie Dollar.

How does economic data influence the value of the Australian Dollar?

Macroeconomic data gauges the health of an economy and can have an impact on the value of its currency. Investors prefer to invest their capital in economies that are safe and growing rather than precarious and shrinking. Greater capital inflows increase the aggregate demand and value of the domestic currency. Classic indicators, such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can influence AUD. A strong economy may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to put up interest rates, also supporting AUD.

What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Australian Dollar?

Quantitative Easing (QE) is a tool used in extreme situations when lowering interest rates is not enough to restore the flow of credit in the economy. QE is the process by which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prints Australian Dollars (AUD) for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions, thereby providing them with much-needed liquidity. QE usually results in a weaker AUD.

What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Australian Dollar?

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the RBA stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It would be positive (or bullish) for the Australian Dollar.

Kaynaklar

• FXStreet