Petrol piyasasında baskın dinamikler sürüyor: ABD-İran görüşmeleri ve muhtemel diesel yasağı fiyatları etkiliyor

Kısaca

Brent 104,32 dolar/varil, WTI 92,41 dolar/varil seviyelerinde kapandı; Brent son hafta %0,1’in altında yükseliş kaydetti. ABD ve İran arasında sondajlı temaslar ve Houthi saldırılarının Körfez bölgesinde arz kırılganlığı yarattığı belirtiliyor. Diesel ihracatına dair olası yasağın yankısı ile piyasalarda talep/arz farkları ve yeni dengeler oluşabilir.

Ana mesele

Küresel petrol fiyatları, ABD-İran görüşmeleri ve diesel ihracatına ilişkin olası yasağın etkisiyle dalgalanmaya devam ediyor.

Ne değişti?

ABD-İran müzakerelerinin ilerleyişi ile Hormuz Boğazı'nın yeniden açılmasına dair olası adımlar fiyatlarda baskıyı artırıyor.

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Okuyucular için enerji maliyetleri ve vurgu yapılan petrol arz/duyarlılık değişebilir.

Ne oldu?

Petrol fiyatları, ABD-İran görüşmeleri ve diesel yasağı olasılığına bağlı olarak dalgalandı; Brent 104,32 dolar/varile, WTI 92,41 dolar/varile geri çekildi.

Neden şimdi?

Kısa vadeli jeopolitik kaygılar ve arz/ taleplerin bozulması piyasalarda volatiliteye yol açtı.

Neden önemli?

Enerji maliyetleri, üretim ve nakliye maliyetlerini etkiler; finansal piyasaları da etkileyebilir.

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Petrol ve enerji şirketleri
• Sanayi ve ulaşım sektörleri
• Tüketiciler ve perakende yakıt kullanıcıları

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Arz dengesizlikleri nedeniyle petrol ve enerji hisselerinde oynaklık artabilir.

Riskler

• Hava koşulları ve jeopolitik gerilimlerin sürmesi
• ABD-İran ilişkilerinin beklenenden daha uzun sürmesi
• Diesel yasağı beklentisinin kuvvetlendirmesi

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• ABD-İran görüşmelerinin seyrini
• Hormuz Boğazı'ndaki ulaşılabilirlik ve yaptırımlar haberlerini
• Diesel ihracatına ilişkin resmi açıklamaları

Haberin tamamı

Oil prices fell about 2% on Friday on mounting hopes for a truce between the US and Iran and talk about a possible US ban on diesel exports, even as traders worried that increasing attacks against Saudi Arabia by Houthi fighters could disrupt supply from the Middle Eastern producer.Brent futures fell $2.28, or 2.1%, to settle at $104.32 a barrel.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell $2.20, or 2.3%, to settle at $92.41.That put Brent up less than 1% for the week and WTI down about 8%.US and Iranian negotiators in New York are exploring a phased path out of war that would involve Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz and Washington lifting its economic blockade of Iran, sources close to the talks said.Iran, however, said it will show no flexibility over its nuclear program even if the US accepts its proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which calls for steps including lifting a US naval blockade on Iranian ports, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Friday.

The complex is again coming under pressure ...

as the market continues to assess the possibility of a (US) diesel export ban while talk of diplomatic progress toward opening the Strait of Hormuz is adding to today's selling, analysts at energy advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note.Washington's talk of a possible ban on diesel exports is widening the gap between US crude oil futures and the global Brent benchmark, a signal that markets expect US refiners to process less crude oil if their diesel output gets stuck at home.The premium of Brent crude over WTI rose to its highest since May for a third day in a row, while US gasoline futures fell around 4% on Friday.Help For Saudi ArabiaSaudi, Turkish and Pakistani military chiefs are to discuss help for Saudi Arabia as it faces attacks by Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis.The Houthis have launched strikes on the Saudi-backed government in Yemen and repeatedly fired into Saudi Arabia, disrupting oil flows from the world's largest energy exporter, part of a wider Middle East war that began with US and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28.Crude oil flows out of the Strait of Hormuz reached 33.7 million barrels in the week starting September 20, preliminary ship-tracking data from Kpler showed on Friday, putting exports roughly on track with the previous week's levels.Before the start of the Iran war, about 20% of the world's oil supplies moved through the strait.Separately, US President Donald Trump made clear during talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping that Chinese help for Iran is unacceptable, US Ambassador to China David Perdue said on Friday.Any agreements to reduce trade tensions between the US and China could boost economic growth and demand for energy.Russian And UkraineThe US has proposed that the United Arab Emirates host a trilateral meeting with Ukraine and Russia to discuss efforts to end their 4-1/2-year-long war, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said.Russian President Vladimir Putin said all proposals for a settlement in the 4-1/2-year-old war with Ukraine remained on the table, but Moscow still needed to assess what was in its best interest, Russian news agencies reported.A drone attack damaged the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery in Russia, forcing it to suspend operations temporarily, Governor Yuri Slyusar said.Heavy drone strikes on Russian refineries followed discussions at UN headquarters in New York on a potential energy-related ceasefire between Kyiv and Moscow.Any deal to end the Russia-Ukraine war could allow Russia to export more energy.

Russia, an OPEC+ member, was the world's third-biggest crude oil producer behind the US and Saudi Arabia in 2025, according to US energy data.

Kaynaklar

• Economic Times - Markets