Orta Doğu gerginliği ve ABD-İran görüşmeleri piyasaları etkileyebilir

Kısaca

İran baskın taleplerini sürdürüyor ve ABD yanıtını bekliyor; dairesel gündemle görüşmeler yeniden gündemde Açıklamalar hafta içinde gerçekleşirse piyasalar yön bulabilir Piyasa izleme noktaları: havacılık ve enerji hisseleri, güvenli limanlar ile dövizler

Ana mesele

Orta Doğu’da gerginlik ve ABD-İran görüşmelerinin bu hafta yeniden başlaması bekleniyor

Ne değişti?

İran’ın görüşme taleplerini sürdürmesi ve ABD’nin yanıt süresinin piyasalarda volatiliteyi tetiklemesi olasıdır

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Piyasalar üzerinde jeopolitik haber akışına bağlı olarak kısa vadeli risk iştahı değişebilir

Ne oldu?

İran, Umumi beyanatta ABD’nin yanıtını beklediğini ve strait of Hormuz konusunda taleplerinin karşılanmasını şart koştu; ABD tarafı bu hafta yeniden görüşmeleri öngördü.

Neden şimdi?

Girişimlerin zamanlaması, bölgesel gerilimin tırmanabileceği bir döneme denk geliyor ve yatırımcıları tetikleyebilir.

Neden önemli?

Görüşmelerin sonucu, enerji tedariki ve bölgesel güvenlik risklerini doğrudan etkileyebilir.

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Yatırımcılar
• Aracı kurumlar
• Enerji şirketleri
• Merkez bankaları

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Enerji ve güvenli liman varlıkları ile dövizlerde kısa vadeli dalgalanmalar görülebilir; hisse senetleri risk iştahına bağlı hareket eder.

Riskler

• Jeopolitik risklerin artması
• Güvenli limanlara yönelim güçlenebilir
• Görüşmenin sonucu belirsizliğini koruyor

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• İran’ın yanıt süresi
• ABD’nin görüşme takvimi
• Piyasa göstergeleri: döviz, enerji ve altın

Haberin tamamı

Here’s a brief recap of the key developments in the Middle East war that occurred over the weekend, which are expected to have a significant impact on markets in the upcoming week.Earlier Sunday, Iran stated that it’s awaiting a definitive US response to a seven-day proposal for reopening the strait and other demands it has put on the table, and won’t soften its conditions, CNBC reported. Tehran is sticking to its position that it would only reopen the crucial waterway if its conditions are met, while a senior Iranian military leader stressed his country’s readiness to continue fighting. “Our conditions are clear; any progress toward the opening of the Strait of Hormuz is contingent upon the fulfillment of these conditions, and we will not back down from them,” said Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that he expects talks with Iran to resume this week, even after rejecting the latest Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Axios reported.

What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets?

In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.

What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics?

Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.

Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"?

The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.

Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"?

The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.

Kaynaklar

• FXStreet