Nifty ve Sensex Kısa Vadede Baskı Altında Kalabilir: 23.270 Seviyesi ve Teknik Göstergeler Analiz Ediliyor

Kısaca

Nifty 23.270 bariyeri haber başlığıyla öne çıkıyor; teknik göstergeler zayıf eğilimi destekliyor Çok sayıda gösterge hem kısa vadeli geri çekilmeyi hem de volatiliteyi işaret ediyor Gelecek hafta için piyasa hareketleri ve stratejiler daha netleşecek

Ana mesele

Nifty’nin teknik göstergelerle baskı altında kalmaya devam ettiği izleniyor

Ne değişti?

Seviyeler ve göstergeler önümüzdeki hafta için zayıf eğilimi destekliyor

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Okuyucular için kısa vadede piyasa volatilitesi ve yatırım kararlarında dikkat gerektirir

Ne oldu?

Hindistan borsaları son işlemlerde sınırlı yükselişe rağmen genel olarak zayıf bir tabu sergiledi.

Neden şimdi?

Hedefteki teknik seviyeler ve küresel baskılar nedeniyle Nifty’nin güçlenmesi zor görünüyor.

Neden önemli?

Küresel yatırımcılar için Hindistan piyasası, 23.270 bariyeriyle dikkat çeken bir kilit noktası oluşturuyor.

Kimler etkileniyor?

• yatırımcılar
• vadesi kısa olan portföy yöneticileri
• yeni yatırım yapanlar

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Piyasalar genelinde kırılganlık algısı ve risk iştahının kırılması eğilimi güçlenebilir.

Riskler

• uzun vadeli düşüş tehlikesi
• teknik kırılmaların hızlanması
• global volatilitenin etkisi

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• 23.270 bariyeri aşımı yumuşatabilir
• 50/100 günlük hareketli ortalamaların yakınlaşması
• RSI ve MACD'deki hareketler dikkatle izlenmeli

Haberin tamamı

The Indian stock market closed in the green, with Sensex and Nifty rising up to 0.4% on Friday a day after the sharp crash that wiped off a significant portion of investors’ wealth.Sensex rose 315 points to end Friday’s session at 73,896 while Nifty 50 gained 77 points to close at 23,140.50.

Broader markets remained mixed, with Nifty Midcap 100 in red and Nifty Smallcap 100 in green.Analyst Sudeep Shah, Vice President and Head of Technical & Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, interacted with ETMarkets regarding the outlook for the Nifty, options data, and an index strategy for the upcoming week. The following are the edited excerpts from his chat:Nifty slipped 1% this week, logging 8 consecutive declines for the first time.

How do you see Nifty panning out next week?For the seventh consecutive week, the benchmark index Nifty ended on a negative note, marking its longest weekly losing streak since the COVID-led market decline in 2020. The sharp rise in the US 10-year bond yield, coupled with heightened volatility in Brent crude oil prices, has continued to weigh on market sentiment. The US 10-year bond yield is currently hovering at its highest level since 2007, adding to concerns over global financial conditions.

With global headwinds refusing to fade, the real test for Nifty is whether the ongoing weakness has further room to run.Technically, the weakness remains evident as Nifty is trading around 3% below its 50-day EMA and nearly 4% below its 100-day EMA, with both averages trending downward. The Daily RSI once again faced resistance near the 40 level and turned lower, indicating that the range has shifted into a super-bearish zone as per the RSI Range Shift theory.

The failure of RSI to reclaim 40 suggests that every recovery attempt could face a familiar wall of selling pressure.The other momentum indicators are also reinforcing the bearish setup. The Daily MACD remains bearish, with both the MACD and signal lines trading below the zero line. More importantly, the MACD histogram has remained below the zero line for the last 30 trading sessions, highlighting the persistence of negative momentum.

Thirty sessions of negative histogram readings are difficult to ignore, and the next move could reveal whether momentum is merely weak or turning decisively weaker.Going ahead, the 23,270–23,300 zone will act as a crucial hurdle for the index. As long as Nifty stays below 23,300, the broader downward trend is likely to remain intact, with the index potentially moving towards 22,800, followed by 22600.

For now, 23,300 remains the line in the sand: will Nifty reclaim it to challenge the bears, or will the downside targets come into focus?What is your view on Bank Nifty ?For the fifth consecutive week, the banking benchmark index Bank Nifty ended on a negative note and has now slipped below its recent swing low, indicating a continuation of the prevailing corrective trend.The index is trading comfortably below its key short-term and medium-term moving averages, namely the 20-day, 50-day and 100-day EMAs, all of which are trending lower and reflecting sustained weakness in price structure.

Further, the daily RSI has remained confined to the 46-33 range over the past 12 trading sessions, highlighting the absence of meaningful bullish momentum.Going forward, the 55,100-55,000 zone is expected to act as a crucial support area, as it coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the previous upmove.

A decisive break below 55,000 could accelerate selling pressure and drag the index towards the 54,400 level in the short term.On the upside, the 56,000-56,100 zone is likely to act as an immediate hurdle. As long as the index remains below this resistance band, the broader bias is expected to remain negative.Insurance stocks witnessed a heavy beating.

What’s your strategy for PB Fintech, Turtlemint, others in the sector?Policybazaar (PB Fintech) witnessed a sharp 36% decline on September 24, significantly distorting its chart structure. The stock has slipped well below its key moving averages, indicating a deterioration in the overall trend.

The RSI has plunged to 24 from 61, signalling strong bearish momentum, while the MACD line has slipped below the zero line, further reinforcing the bearish bias.The Rs 1,160–1,150 zone remains a crucial support area, as the stock witnessed a sharp rebound from this zone in May 2024. A decisive breach below this support could trigger a further extension of weakness.Turtlemint has declined nearly 40% over the past two sessions and is now trading significantly below its listing price.

The ADX indicator shows DI- comfortably placed above DI+, highlighting the strong dominance of bears over bulls. The Rs 98–100 zone is likely to act as an immediate resistance, and the bearish bias is likely to persist as long as the stock trades below this zone.Given the sharp deterioration in technical indicators across the insurance sector, bottom fishing in the affected stocks may be premature.

It would be prudent to wait for greater clarity on price action, signs of stabilisation and further regulatory announcements before considering fresh positions.Where are you seeing a strong option position right now and which Nifty strikes could act as immediate support or resistance zones going into next expiry?From an options perspective, significant call writing is visible at the 23,300 and 23,400 strikes, with call writing nearly twice and thrice the corresponding put writing, respectively, making these levels likely immediate resistance zones.

On the downside, the 23,000 strike has witnessed substantial put writing, nearly four times stronger than call writing, indicating strong positional support around this level.

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Kaynaklar

• Economic Times - Markets