Hindistanın tüketici hisseleri bu yıl en çok zarar görenler arasında: Piyasa değeri yaklaşık Rs 4 lakh crore eridi

Kısaca

Rs 4 lakh crore civarında toplam piyasa değeri kaybı var bazı FMCG hisseleri değer kaybında öne çıktı talep toparlanması ve brüt satışlar iyileşmeye rağmen piyasa değeri düşüyor

Ana mesele

İçerideki talep toparlanmasına rağmen tüketici hisselerinin piyasa değeri devasa şekilde eridi

Ne değişti?

Talep iyileşmesine rağmen değer kaybı yatırım değerlemesini baskılıyor

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Okuyucuyu piyasa kaybı ve yatırımcı güvenindeki kırılma konusunda uyarır

Ne oldu?

Indian consumer stocks kayıp kaydetti; toplam piyasa değeri yaklaşık Rs 4 lakh crore eridi

Neden şimdi?

talep nihai olarak toparlanıyor görünse de değerlemeler baskılanıyor

Neden önemli?

yatırımcı güveni ve sermaye akışları açısından önemli

Kimler etkileniyor?

• yatırımcılar
• emeklilik fonları
• kurumsal yatırımcılar
• hisse senedi piyasası katılımcıları

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

tüketici ürünleri ve FMCG hisselerinde değer kaybı geniş çaplı

Riskler

• fiyat düşüşünün devamı
• revizyonlar
• talep belirsizliği

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• talep göstergeleri
• kurumsal yatırımcı hareketleri
• yeniden değerleme hareketleri
• hisse başına kazanç projeksiyonları

Haberin tamamı

India's consumer stocks, long prized for steady earnings, strong brands and defensive appeal, have turned into some of the market’s biggest laggards this year, wiping out nearly Rs 4 lakh crore in investor wealth despite signs of improving demand.A basket of major FMCG and consumer names has lost about Rs 3.75 lakh crore in market cap so far this year, according to ACE Equity data.

The combined market value of the 15 stocks fell to about Rs 19.94 lakh crore from Rs 23.69 lakh crore at the end of last year.The damage has been broad-based. ITC has shed a third of its value this year, falling 33.3%, while Godrej Consumer Products is down 28%.

Emami has lost 26.4%, Patanjali Foods 26%, Dabur India 23.4% and United Breweries 22.8%.Also Read:IPO Calendar: 20 new issues to open for subscription in busiest week of the yearBritannia Industries is down 18.1%, Tata Consumer Products 17.5%, Hindustan Unilever 16.1%, Varun Beverages 11.2% and Colgate-Palmolive India 10.6%. ITC alone has seen around Rs 1.68 lakh crore erased from its market cap, while HUL has lost close to Rs 87,600 crore.

Godrej Consumer has lost another Rs 35,000 crore.There have been exceptions. Radico Khaitan has surged 38.2%, while Marico and Nestle India are up 9.1% and 5.8%, respectively. United Spirits has been largely flat, down around 1.4%.

The weakness looks particularly striking because the underlying consumption picture has actually started improving.Green shoots seen latelyAxis Securities said Q1 marked the second consecutive quarter of sequential improvement in demand, with most FMCG companies reporting high-single-digit to double-digit revenue growth.

Rural and urban demand remained resilient, supported by improving consumer sentiment, premiumisation, deeper distribution and the recent GST rate cuts, the brokerage said.HUL reported 10% underlying sales growth with 5% volume growth, while Dabur posted 10.6% revenue growth and 5% India consumer volume growth. Colgate-Palmolive grew 12%, Britannia 9.5% and Varun Beverages 20%.

Nestle India stood out with 25.4% topline growth.That disconnect between improving operating trends and weak share prices points to a bigger problem: valuation de-rating.Consumer stocks entered the year carrying rich multiples built on expectations of steady earnings compounding, pricing power and relatively low business volatility.

When earnings growth failed to accelerate enough to justify those premiums, investors began paying less for each rupee of future profit.The sector has also faced persistent foreign selling. FMCG stocks saw FII outflows in almost every month through July, adding pressure to shares already struggling with expensive valuations and uneven earnings upgrades.Input costs have further complicated the earnings picture.

Palm oil prices have remained elevated, while sugar, packaging materials, milk and crude-linked derivatives remain important cost variables.Axis Securities said the ability of companies to pass on higher costs without hurting volumes will be a key monitorable. While demand is improving, margin expansion may remain constrained if commodity costs stay firm.That makes the next phase of the recovery less about revenue growth alone and more about whether that growth converts into earnings upgrades.

The pace at which companies convert improving demand into volume growth and margin expansion will be critical for earnings upgrades, Axis Securities said.The brokerage remains constructive on the medium-to-long-term outlook, citing improving purchasing power, low category penetration, greater rural distribution and continued premiumisation.

Government spending, tax benefits and GST 2.0 reforms could support near-term consumption, while quick-commerce is opening another distribution channel for branded consumer companies.Axis Securities’ top conviction ideas include Nestle India, Asian Paints, Britannia Industries and CCL Products, based on earnings visibility, brand strength and pricing power.For the broader FMCG pack, however, the market appears to be demanding more evidence before restoring the valuation premiums investors were once willing to pay almost automatically.Data: Ritesh PresswalaDisclosure: This article has been written by Podishetti Akash, who is not a SEBI-registered Research Analyst or an Investment Adviser.

Podishetti Akash and her ‘relative(s)’ (as defined under Section 2(77) of the Companies Act, 2013) do not hold any financial interest in the companies mentioned in this article as of the date of publication. The views/recommendations mentioned in this article, wherever applicable, are those of the respective SEBI-registered Research Analyst/brokerage and have been reproduced/reported with due attribution.

They should not be construed as the views or recommendations of The Economic Times Digital or the journalist. Readers are advised to consider the original research report and make their investment decisions based on their own assessment. Brokerage disclourses here.

Kaynaklar

• Economic Times - Markets