Güneş enerjisi talebindeki uzun açık, gümüş piyasasında baskı sürüyor

Kısaca

Güneş modüllerindeki gümüş yoğunluğu azaldı; güvenli stoklar artıyor. Yıl sonuna kadar potansiyel ek sıkıntılar ve politika etkileri izlenecek. Piyasa etkisi: gümüş fiyatları baskı altında, yatırımcı dikkatli davranıyor

Ana mesele

Güneş modülü üretiminde gümüş talebi azalışı, uzun vadeli stok etkisiyle gümüş piyasasında açık bırakıyor

Ne değişti?

Gümüş içeren güneş modüllerinde her panel daha az gümüş taşıyor; bu yılki denge üzerinde baskı oluşuyor

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Okuyucuya gümüş ve güneş enerji talebini etkileyen temel dinamikleri gösterir

Ne oldu?

ABD'de çeyrekte kurulmuş güneş enerjisi kapasitesi 11,4 GW, yüzde 45 artış gösterdi.

Neden şimdi?

Güneş panel başına düşen gümüş miktarında azalma ve 2026 için beklenen talep daralması

Neden önemli?

Gümüş talebi güneş enerji büyüme hikayesinin merkezindeydi; azaltılınca stoklar yükselecek, fiyatlar baskı altında kalabilir

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Gümüş yatırımcıları
• yenilenebilir enerji tedarik zinciri
• enerji maliyeti üzerinde etkileri olan ülkeler

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Gümüş talebindeki düşüş kısa vadede fiyat baskısı, uzun vadede stok yönetimini etkileyebilir

Riskler

• Gümüş fiyatlarında volatilite artabilir
• Güneş enerji üretim maliyetleri dalgalanabilir
• Talep revizyonları yatırım kararlarını etkileyebilir

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• Mevsimsel talep değişimi
• Metals Focus ve Silver Institute'in 2026 için öngörüleri
• FED kararları ve faiz yönelimleri

Haberin tamamı

America installed 45% more solar this spring than a year earlier, every one of those panels locks its silver away for decades, and even the deepest cut to solar demand I have seen leaves the silver market short for a sixth year.The two things a long-term silver holder needs from solar both survive this year. The market stays short: even on J.P.

Morgan's estimate, the deepest cut I have seen, the shortfall that Metals Focus and the Silver Institute forecast for 2026 roughly halves and does not disappear. And silver that has gone into a panel stays there for decades, so every installation adds to a stock that never returns to the market. What does not survive is the growth story. The solar case sold to silver buyers over the past three years was about volume: more panels, more silver. The volume half is holding.

The silver half is not, because each panel carries less silver than the one before, and that is bad for this year's balance. The reading is settled in November, when Metals Focus publishes its interim update.Silver closed at $65.06 an ounce on September 23 against gold at $4,304.11, a gold-silver ratio of 66.2. Silver fell about 3% on the day and gold 1.2%. The trigger was two regional Fed presidents saying the case for further tightening remained after last week's quarter-point rise.

Early trading on September 24 took silver lower still, near $64. Silver is about 9% below where it started 2026. It is roughly 46% below its January peak of $121.58. The Federal Reserve raised its policy rate on September 16 to 3.75% to 4.00% and projected one more increase this year. The market now prices that further increase before the year ends. The Golden Meadow® research this article draws on has followed the solar demand line closely for two years.

This year's numbers changed what it shows.The United States installed 11.4 GW of solar in a quarter, up 45%, while J.P. Morgan sees photovoltaic silver demand falling about 60 MozSolar installation in the United States had a very large quarter this spring, and the reason is a deadline. On September 10 the Q3 2026 US Solar Market Insight from SEIA and Wood Mackenzie reported 11.4 gigawatts installed in the second quarter, up 45% on a year earlier.

Utility-scale projects, the large solar farms that supply the grid, made up 9.6 gigawatts of that and grew 61%. Developers are putting projects into service before two federal tax credits expire. Projects that locked in the credits ahead of the deadline are being finished now. The smaller segments show what happens when a credit has already gone: residential installations fell 12% and community solar fell 14%.

The report raised its outlook for the next five years by only 1.2%, which its authors describe as essentially flat.Sources: SEIA and Wood Mackenzie, Q3 2026 US Solar Market InsightSegment figures are as reported and rounded; they sum to slightly more than the stated total.China supplies the other half of the picture. Its National Energy Administration reported that installed solar capacity reached 1,286 gigawatts at the end of July, passing coal-fired capacity for the first time.

That is a milestone for the fleet already built. New additions tell a different story: the previous issue recorded that China's January-to-July additions were 61.4% below the same period of 2025.Installation volume, then, is holding up. The silver in it is not. Solar cells use silver paste for the fine lines that carry current off the cell. At this year's prices manufacturers have cut the amount in every cell.

Metals Focus and the Silver Institute forecast photovoltaic silver demand, the silver used in solar cells, at about 151.0 Moz for 2026, down from 186.6 Moz in 2025. On August 13, J.P. Morgan's research page carried a lower estimate from Gregory Shearer, the bank's head of base and precious metals strategy. Solar silver demand, he said, could fall by around 30% this year, a reduction of roughly 60 million ounces. Two cautions travel with that figure.

It is a verbal estimate on a research page rather than an entry in a published forecast table. And the Silver Institute has not adopted it. It is also the lowest estimate this newsletter has worked with, which is exactly why it is the right one to test the deficit against.Sources: World Silver Survey 2026, Metals Focus and the Silver Institute | J.P.

Morgan Global Research, silver, August 13, 2026 | SEIA and Wood Mackenzie, Q3 2026 US Solar Market InsightThe 126.6 Moz in the table is my subtraction of 60 from 186.6, and it should be read as such. If Shearer is right and every other line in the survey's balance holds, the 2026 deficit narrows from 46.3 Moz to roughly 21.9 Moz. The survey's other lines will not all hold, so that figure is a sensitivity rather than a forecast. It is still a deficit.

BloombergNEF now expects solar silver demand to fall for a second straight year. Its own earlier figure for 2026 was near 194 Moz, on a higher starting point. The cutting is driven by cost. Metals Focus and the Silver Institute put silver at 8% to 10% of the cost of a solar cell at the start of 2025, and at over 20% by the end of it. The credible range for this year now runs from roughly 127 Moz to roughly 194 Moz. The survey's forecast sits between them.

The three are not built on the same 2025 starting point, so the gaps between them overstate the disagreement.Two conversions put the installation numbers in silver terms, with the assumptions stated. The first is the American quarter. Its 11.4 gigawatts embed roughly 2.5 Moz of silver at this year's silver content per gigawatt. That content, about 6.7 tonnes per gigawatt, is a working figure rather than a published one.

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Kaynaklar

• FXStreet