EUR/USD 1.1380’e geriledi: Fed'in daha sert tutumu ve Ortadoğu gerilimleri etkisi

Kısaca

EUR/USD 1.1380’e kadar geriledi; Fed’in şahin mesajları baskı oluşturdu ECB’nin 2,50% olan depo faizine işaret eden seviyesi ile uluslararası oynaklık arttı Küresel piyasalarda güvenli liman talebi ve kısa vadeli yön arayışları sürüyor

Ana mesele

Dolar karşısında euro başlıca baskı altında, Fed’in şahin yönelimleri ve Orta Doğu gerilimleri yükseliyor.

Ne değişti?

Fed’in daha sert para politikası sinyalleri ve jeopolitik risklerin birleşimi kur çapında baskıyı artırıyor.

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Piyasa volatilitesi artabilir; yatırımcılar güvenli limanlara yönelirken kur akışları etkilenebilir.

Ne oldu?

EUR/USD, pazartesi erken Asya seansında 1.1380’e geriledi; Fed şahin işaretleri baskı oluşturdu.

Neden şimdi?

Fed yetkililerinin agresif mesajları ve Ortadoğu gerilimleri risk iştahını zayıflattı.

Neden önemli?

Döviz çiftinin hareketi küresel enflasyon ve faiz farklarını etkileyebilir.

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Yatırımcılar
• Aracı kurumlar

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Döviz ve borçlanma maliyetlerinde volatilite artabilir

Riskler

• Kısa vadede kurların aşırı hareketi
• jeopolitik risklerin yükselmesiyle volatilite türevlerinde artış

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• Fed toplantı söylemleri
• ECB faiz kararları
• Orta Doğu gelişmeleri

Haberin tamamı

EUR/USD declines to near 1.1380 in Monday’s early Asian session. Hawkish Fed remarks strengthened expectations for further tightening.Markets are currently pricing nearly a 45% odds of another ECB 25 bps rate hike in October. The EUR/USD pair edges lower to around 1.1380 during the early Asian session on Monday, pressured by hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and escalating Middle East tensions. Traders brace for the Retail Sales and Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation reports from Germany later on Wednesday for fresh impetus. Many Fed officials delivered hawkish remarks last week, with Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack saying on Friday that she is worried that persistently high inflation risks conditioning the American public to accept elevated prices as the ‌norm, adding the central bank cannot let that happen. Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson said, "Some modest further tightening may be warranted.” Markets are now pricing in nearly a 65.9% odds of the Fed October benchmark rate hike, up from 57.6% a week earlier and 9.4% a month earlier, according to the CME FedWatch tool.Furthermore, rising tensions in the Middle East could boost safe-haven flows, supporting the Greenback. US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that he believes the war with Iran will be won “very soon,” adding that additional military strikes before the midterm elections are possible. Meanwhile, Iran sticks to its position that it would only reopen the crucial waterway if its conditions are met, while a senior Iranian military leader stressed his country’s readiness to continue fighting.The European Central Bank (ECB) raised its key deposit rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.50% at its September policy meeting. Markets are currently pricing roughly a 45% chance of another 25 bps rate hike in October, with a further rate hike fully priced only by December at the earliest, according to Reuters. That leaves plenty of room for incoming data to move expectations.Euro slide seen as stretched with downside limited unless supports give wayStrategists at UOB Group note that the Euro’s latest leg lower has exceeded their earlier expectations. In their 1–3 weeks view, they recall that in their last update on Wednesday, 23 September, when EUR/USD was trading around 1.1450, they had highlighted that “there is a chance for EUR to test 1.1400, but the odds for a sustained decline below this level are not high.” However, they point out that the subsequent “breach of 1.1400 triggered a sharp decline that reached a low of 1.1358 yesterday.”While acknowledging that “EUR could weaken further,” UOB argues that “the deeply oversold conditions suggest that the scope for additional downside may be relatively limited.” They emphasise that “the decline in EUR that started two weeks ago … has been substantial,” and draw attention to “two strong support levels, at 1.1355 and 1.1325.” On the topside, UOB flags that “a breach of 1.1430 (‘strong resistance’ level previously at 1.1490) would indicate that the weakness in EUR is stabilising,” marking that zone as a key threshold for any near-term recovery in the Euro.Hammack flags inflation mindset risk as Fed keeps policy stance restrictiveFed’s Hammack delivers a moderately hawkish message, with a FXS Speechtracker score of 7.2/10, slightly below the 7.5/10 historical average, as the focus shifts to the danger of an entrenched “inflationary mindset” after a prolonged period of above-target price pressures. The emphasis on solid growth, a stable job market, and demand- and capex-driven inflation risks, alongside the warning that expectations could shift if progress stalls, underscores a clear preference for maintaining a restrictive policy stance to re-anchor inflation expectations. Overall, the tone leans hawkish, but the slight dip versus the established baseline suggests marginally less urgency than in past communications.The FXS Fed Sentiment Index slipped by 0.34 points to 147.72, indicating a modest pullback in perceived hawkishness following the speech. Despite this decline, the index remains firmly in hawkish territory well above the neutral 100 mark, signaling that, in aggregate, Fed communication still points to restrictive policy bias even as the latest Hammack remarks register a small sentiment moderation in the FXS Fed Sentiment Index and FXS Speechtracker.Technical Analysis: EUR/USD retains a negative outlook below the 100-day SMAIn the daily chart, EUR/USD remains under clear bearish pressure, holding well below the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the Bollinger Bands’ middle line, which cap the topside and reinforce a negative near-term bias. The Relative Strength Index (14) sits in oversold territory near 27, hinting that while downside momentum is strong, the sell-off is becoming stretched.On the downside, immediate support emerges at the lower Bollinger Band around 1.1340, where sellers may hesitate to push prices further without a corrective bounce. On the topside, initial resistance is clustered in the 1.1525–1.1530 area, defined by the Bollinger middle band and the 100-day SMA, with a subsequent barrier at the upper Bollinger Band near 1.1708; only a recovery above these levels would ease the current bearish tone.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.

EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro?

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Kaynaklar

• FXStreet