Enerji Piyasasında Süper Döngü ve Geleneksel Portföyün Ötesinde Stratejiler Analizi

Kısaca

Küreselde petrol fiyatları ve enerji hisseleri belirgin hareketli; XOP yaklaşık yüzde 40 oranında yükseldi. BWET gibi ulaştırma maliyeti odaklı ETF’ler rekor yükselişler gördü; 2x kaldıraç versiyonları için başvurular devam ediyor. Piyasalarda belirsizlik sürüyor; yatırımcılar süper döngü argümanını uzun vadeli getiri amacıyla değerlendiriyor.

Ana mesele

Küresel enerji piyasasında enerji talebinin artması ve tedarik şoklarının yeniden gündeme gelmesiyle yatırımcılar daha uzun vadeli 'süper döngü' stratejilerine yöneliyor.

Ne değişti?

Ana akım yatırımcılar artık 60-40 portföyünün yeterli olmadığını düşünüyor; gerçek varlıklar ve enflasyona duyarlı varlıklar ön plana çıkıyor.

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Birikim ve yatırım kararlarını yeniden gözden geçirme gereği doğuyor; enerji ve kaynak odaklı yatırım araçlarına ilgi artabilir.

Ne oldu?

Enerji ve petrol talebindeki artış ile jeopolitik gerilimler petrol fiyatlarını destekledi; XOP ve USO gibi ETF’ler güçlü performans sergiledi.

Neden şimdi?

Gelen enflasyon baskılarının devamı ve Fed ile diğer merkez bankalarının politikasını sürdürmesi yatırımcıları daha dayanıksız portföylerden uzaklaştırıyor.

Neden önemli?

Küresel enerji dağıtımını yakından etkileyen talep-yerine koyma dinamikleri yatırım portföylerinde yeni kaldıraçlı ve enflasyona duyarlı varlıklara yönelim doğuruyor.

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Yatırımcılar
• Fon yöneticileri

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Enerji hisselerinde ve enerji odaklı ETF’lerde volatilite artabilir

Riskler

• Jeopolitik riskler
• Talep dalgalanmaları
• Tedarik zinciri kırılmaları

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• Birleşik enerji arzı politikaları
• Yeni kaldıraçlı ETF başvuruları
• Ana enflasyon verileri ve merkez bankası yönlendirmeleri

Haberin tamamı

Oil has been a great trade in 2026, with wars between the U.S. and Iran war and Russia-Ukraine resulting in rising crude prices and big profits for opportunistic traders.

Broad-based energy sector ETFs such as XOP are up roughly 40% this year, while ETFs betting directly on the price of oil, like USO , are up a lot more than that. Nothing can come close to the gains made by BWET , a freight ETF that bets directly on the cost of transporting crude around the world, now up over 4,000% this year and about to be extended on the risk spectrum with a version that provides 2x leverage on the same futures contracts (the ETF sponsor filed a registration statement for that leveraged version of the fund this week).

But any abrupt change in geopolitics, such as an agreement between the U.S. and Iran to end the war, and increased oil supply to the market, could erode those gains. One thing that won't change though is a world investors expect to be hit by recurring supply shocks and persistent inflation . That is leading some investors to think in terms of "super cycles" — trades that reflect a world in which resource demands will continue to grow, but which seek to profit from those themes over longer time periods.

The way to hedge an unpredictable world and stock market is also changing as a result of a bond market that has failed in recent years one of the primary tests it was designed to serve — smoothing out the bumps along the way that stock investors know they will experience.

"60-40 won't work," said Tyler Rosenlicht, head of natural resource equities at Cohen & Steers on CNBC's "ETF Edge" this week, referring to the traditional portfolio design of 60% stocks and 40% bonds.

And that is a concern occurring during a new period of global inflation that by all accounts is going to be difficult to tamp down for the Federal Reserve and other central bankers around the world.

"This is about real assets broadly and the idea you need inflation-sensitive assets in a portfolio," he said.

Rosenlicht manages the Cohen & Steers Natural Resources Active ETF ( CSNR ), which has $123 million in assets and charges an expense ratio of 0.50% annually. The fund is up 22% year-to-date, according to Morningstar data.

Rosenlicht said oil is an important story, "but it's not the only thing. It is a big broad regime change," he said of natural resource-constraints in a world in which demand is accelerating.

"Bonds just aren't the hedge they used to be and in an inflationary environment, yields are going up," said Adam Patti, CEO of VistaShares on "ETF Edge."

"The problem with oil and gas is the volatility, not the direction. It's so headline-driven," he said.

He pointed to the record diesel prices as a better signal of the bigger global macroeconomic story. "That's what drives industry and provides inflationary pressure on goods and services, and that's where we're seeing prices sustained at much higher levels, and it's not quite as volatile as oil and gas, which is more consumer-driven."

And it is not just diminished Russian refining capacity, which is a factor in diesel prices, which bears watching for investors considering the longer-term picture, Patti said. Ukraine is unable to serve in its traditional role as "the bread basket of Europe."

"There are issues across all natural resources, particularly at times of war, and when it is harder to ship than in the days of the past," he said.

Rosenlicht said for many investors it is better to trade in natural resources equities, the companies that facilitate extraction, as opposed to the commodities futures markets, which are not only expensive to trade in but also highly dependent on what is taking place in the "front month" contract, the contract that is closest to expiration.

CSNR's portfolio is roughly 39% energy, and just under 30% equally to agriculture and metals/mining stocks.

"This is very good inflation beta without the friction of commodities futures products. We like traditional oil and gas ... but you can have an environment where inflation is picking up a lot, but maybe the oil price goes down, and if the goal is inflation-protection, you might miss the bigger picture," Rosenlicht said.

"In the small picture, if you're excited about oil, then oil ETFs will be a great buy. But I see these bigger things happening, and that's why the lens is getting broader," he added.

The thinking extends beyond the oil and gas extraction sector, with Patti placing significant focus on the electrification trend, another area of elevated pricing focus amid recent inflation.

Because of the trillions of dollars to be spent on deploying upgrades to the grid, electricity prices are continually rising, Patti said. "Demand is rising and outpacing supply. There are tremendous bottlenecks on equipment," he added, from transformers to transmission lines. That has contributed to the intense public backlash to data centers , but it also makes Patti think of the electrification trade as a more "long-term strategic allocation."

The VistaShares Electrification Supercycle ETF ( POW ), which has close to $63 million in assets and charges an expense ratio of 0.75% annually, is up 32% this year, according to Morningstar.

Patti said AI is a big part of the electrification story, but the energy needs of the world are going up more widely, and while renewables are going to continue to gain market share, oil and gas will remain critical, with natural gas demand rising even faster and for longer than oil.

"Energy is going to be very different five years from now. Five years ago, you thought Exxon. Now, hopefully you still think XOM but also natural gas and uranium and all of the power stack, utilities," he said.

Haberin tamamı için kaynak bağlantısını ziyaret edin.

Kaynaklar

• CNBC - Energy