Dayanıklılık priminin lojistikte yeniden şekillenmesi: Öngörü belirsizleşirken esneklik öne çıkıyor

Kısaca

Güncel dönemde lojistik firmaları çoklu senaryolara yatırım yapıyor; örneğin Singapur ve Hong Kong arasında veri altyapısı güçlendirilmesi. Neredeyse tüm bilançolar, öngörüye dayalı kararlar yerine esnek planlama ve risk yönetimine kayıyor; 15-20 yıl süren teknolojik riskler dikkatle ele alınıyor. Sonuç olarak pazarlar dayanıklılığı artıran adımları izliyor; esneklik kazandıran stratejiler ve bölgesel çeşitlendirme izlenmeli

Ana mesele

Geleneksel öngörülerin zayıflamasıyla deniz taşımacılığında esneklik ve çoklu senaryolara hazırlık ön plana çıktı

Ne değişti?

Güncel yaklaşım, tek öngörünün ötesinde adaptif stratejiler gerektiriyor, tedarik zincirinde çeşitlendirme ve veri altyapısı artırımı öne çıktı

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Küresel nakliye maliyetleri ve operasyonel planlama üzerinde dönüştürücü etki yaratabilir

Ne oldu?

Küresel nakliye sektörü, artan öngörü belirsizliği karşısında esneklik odaklı yaklaşımları benimsedi.

Neden şimdi?

Çok sayıda coğrafi, teknolojik ve regülasyonel kırılma aynı anda etkili oluyor.

Neden önemli?

Taşıma maliyetleri, operasyonel güvenilirlik ve yatırım kararları üzerinde doğrudan etki yapar.

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Nakliye şirketleri
• Finansal kurumlar
• Tedarik zinciri operatörleri
• Lojistik yazılım sağlayıcıları

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Pazarlar daha dayanıklı stratejiler benimseyerek maliyet ve hizmet esnekliğini dengelemeye çalışıyor

Riskler

• ÖNGÖRÜ BELİRSİZLİĞİ BÜYÜYEBİLİR
• CAPEX etkileri ve altyapı yatırım maliyetleri yükselebilir
• Regülasyonlar hızla değişebilir

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• Senaryo analizine yatırım
• Coğrafi çeşitlendirme politikaları
• Veri altyapısı iş sürekliliğini güçlendirme

Haberin tamamı

Shipping companies have been forced to rethink how they plan, invest and manage risk as the industry moves deeper into an era of overlapping geopolitical, technological and regulatory disruption, senior executives told nearly 300 delegates attending the opening Big Issues session at Splash Singapore yesterday.

Splash editor Sam Chambers framed the discussion around a decade in which shocks increasingly arrive simultaneously rather than sequentially, asking what successful shipping organisations had actually changed to cope with the new environment.

Bjorn Hojgaard, chief executive of Anglo-Eastern Univan Group, said shipping had moved from a “just-in-time” world towards a “just-in-case” mentality.

After nearly 40 years in the industry, Hojgaard said the biggest strategic change was accepting that forecasting itself had become less reliable.

“It’s less about predicting the future and more about asking what we need to have in place in order to have optionality and cater to different futures,” he said.

Anglo-Eastern had recently run a long-range scenario exercise looking backwards from two very different versions of 2035 rather than attempting to produce a single forecast. That approach was also translating into deliberate redundancy. Hojgaard said the group had added data infrastructure in Singapore alongside its Hong Kong servers so operations could continue if Hong Kong connectivity failed. Banking relationships had also been spread across different geographies.

Hor Weng Yew, managing director and chief executive of Pacific Carriers Limited and chairman of the Singapore Maritime Foundation, said old shipping cycle assumptions had become increasingly dangerous.

Cycles were now “much more intense, so much more shorter, and so much more extreme”, he said.

Hor said the answer was to think more carefully about which risks owners were genuinely equipped to take. PCL remained comfortable underwriting asset and operating risk, he said, but taking 15- or 20-year propulsion technology risk was more problematic.

“If you do take the exposure ourselves, then to me it’s down to the discipline about how wrong can you afford to be?” he said.

Jeremy Sutton, chief executive of Swire Shipping, said governance systems that once risked becoming bureaucratic had been turned into day-to-day operating tools.

Risk reviews that might once have taken place several times a year had been brought into weekly and monthly management routines, with outside voices such as P&I clubs also invited into discussions.

“Most of these uncertainties are ahead of us and not behind us,” Sutton said.

Swire had also pushed more decision-making authority downwards. Sutton highlighted stop-work cards carried by crew and operational staff, which had helped drive a 20%-25% increase in reported safety issues.

Nick Potter, president and chief executive of AET, said companies had to avoid both paralysis and short-termism.

“For us, our North Star is 2050 and that’s net zero,” he said.

With yards already accepting orders for ships delivering around 2030, Potter said decisions being taken today would directly affect the company’s 2050 position. AET’s response had been to combine a strong balance sheet and portfolio resilience with greater use of AI and digitalisation. The company was also running around 57 retrofit projects across roughly 25 mainly decarbonisation technologies.

John Su, group chairman and chief executive of Erasmus Shipinvest Group, said uncertainty had not stopped his company expanding rapidly across dry bulk, containers, multipurpose vessels and gas shipping. But despite the diversification, he said the underlying discipline had not changed.

“Always think about how to survive the low cycle market,” Su advised. “Grow, but always survival is a very basic priority.”

Shmuel Yoskovitz, chief executive of X-Press Feeders, said decentralisation had become crucial for a liner business constantly exposed to congestion and schedule disruption.

“The most important thing is not to think that someone sitting in Singapore like myself can actually manage Rotterdam,” he said.

X-Press Feeders had also shifted towards owning more vessels rather than relying as heavily on chartered tonnage.

“The biggest change over the past few years is mostly becoming a much, much bigger shipowner than a charterer,” Yoskovitz said. “The minute that you own your own vessels, you control your destiny.”

Across the panel, the emerging model was clear: more buffers, more scenario planning, more decentralised authority and greater clarity over which risks companies were prepared to carry themselves.

Efficiency remained important, but the 2020s had forced shipping to put a higher price on resilience.

The inaugural Splash Singapore, backed by the Singapore Maritime Foundation, proved a hugely popular day event at the Fairmont Hotel, with delegates and sponsors already committing to its return next year on September 23.

Delegate posts on LinkedIn praised it as “a day built around genuine, unscripted conversation with some of the most senior veterans in global shipping, no slides, no sales pitches, just real dialogue on the issues shaping our industry” while another delegate noted the event had a “room full of people who move world trade” and another attendee praised organisers for “bringing together such a strong cross-section of our industry and creating space for thoughtful conversations on and off the stage.”

“An excellent gathering of industry leaders, with thought-provoking discussions spanning geopolitical uncertainties, tanker and dry bulk market outlooks, maritime digitalisation, AI and the evolving workforce,” stated another happy delegate.

Kaynaklar

• Splash247 (Shipping/Maritime)