Çin’in yurtdışındaki kömür santralleri için planların üçte ikisinin feshedildiğine ilişkin rapor

Kısaca

Beş yıl önce planlanan yurtdışı kömür güç projelerinin üçte ikisi iptal oldu; kapasitede 61,5 GW azalma ve yaşam boyu emisyonlarda 6,4 milyar ton tasarruf kaydedildi. Geçen yıl Çinli devlet şirketleriyle bağlantılı projeler 7,1 GW iptal edilirken, 3,3 GW inşaata geçti ve 20,5 GW hâlâ planlama aşamasında kaldı. Özel Çinli şirketlerin devrede olduğu projeler hâlâ devam ediyor; Endonezya 17,1 GW, Vietnam 3,8 GW, Pakistan 3,4 GW projelendiriliyor.

Ana mesele

Çin’in yurtdışındaki kömür güç projelerinin büyük kısmı feshedildi, ancak özel şirketlerce yürütülen projeler devam ediyor.

Ne değişti?

Rapor, beş yıl önce planlanan kömür gücü projelerinin iki üçünün iptal edildiğini ve kapasite kesintisini ortaya koyuyor.

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Enerji dönüşümü ve yurtdışı finansman akışları konusunda okuyuculara net tablo sunar.

Ne oldu?

Beş yıl önce planlanan yurtdışı kömür güç projelerinin büyük bölümü iptal edildi.

Neden şimdi?

Özel şirketlerce yürütülen projeler sürüyor; iptaller hızında bir değişim gözlenmiş olabilir.

Neden önemli?

Uluslararası taahhütlerin uygulanabilirliği ve finansman akışları üzerinde etkili olabilir.

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Hükümet temsilcileri
• Finansal kurumlar
• Özel Çinli şirketler

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Kömür dışı enerji dönüşümüne odaklanma ve uluslararası yatırım kararlarında değişim sinyalleri

Riskler

• İptal hızının düşmesi
• Kamu-özel işbirliği riskleri
• Finansman akışlarında belirsizlik

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• Özel Çinli şirketlerin yeni kararları
• İptal/başlatma hızlarındaki değişim
• İlgili ülkelerde finansman akışları

Haberin tamamı

Five years after China pledged to stop building or financing new coal-fired power plants overseas, the country’s state sector has made “significant progress” towards meeting that goal, though private projects are still being developed, according to a new report.

Two-thirds of China’s overseas coal power projects planned five years ago have since been cancelled, a 61.5-gigawatt (GW) cut in capacity that has saved 6.4 billion tonnes of “lifetime” carbon dioxide emissions, the study by a pair of climate-focused research organisations found.

In the 12 months leading up to July, 3.4GW of capacity in Zimbabwe was spiked, as well as another 1.7GW in Bangladesh and 1.4GW in Indonesia, according to the Helsinki-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) and Philippines-headquartered People of Asia for Climate Solutions (PACS).

Chinese state-owned enterprises and banks have made significant headway towards meeting their government’s commitments to shut down overseas coal projects, said Lizzie Frost, a China analyst at CREA, in a statement about the report’s findings.

But the report found there had been a slowdown in cancellations over the past year, with projects linked to private Chinese companies still going ahead.

Last year, 7.1GW of China-linked coal power capacity was cancelled, while 3.3GW entered construction and another 20.5GW remained in planning, the two groups said.

Indonesia has by far the most Chinese-linked coal projects worldwide with 17.1GW, followed by Vietnam with 3.8GW and Pakistan with 3.4GW, according to the report.

Most of the coal capacity still under construction is also in Indonesia, where off-grid projects are being funded by private Chinese companies to power local mineral processing facilities and industrial parks.

“The continued expansion of coal plants involving private Chinese companies risks breaching the 2021 pledge,” the two organisations said in a statement.

President Xi Jinping made a pledge that China would stop building and financing coal-fired power projects in other countries during a speech at the United Nations General Assembly in September 2021.

The commitment followed a surge in Chinese-linked power projects over the previous years as part of the country’s Belt and Road Initiative – a huge infrastructure-building drive aimed at expanding China’s global trade links.

Between 2014 and 2020, about US$160 billion of Chinese-backed coal-fired power plants were planned or announced outside China, the International Institute of Green Finance think tank said.

Xi’s pledge appeared to have an immediate effect, with a CREA report in 2022 finding that the number of planned projects had already reduced.

In some countries once slated for coal-fired projects, China has turned to renewable energy, the CREA and PACS study found.

“Estimated operational China-linked renewable energy generation has already topped the potential generation of cancelled coal projects in Brazil, Tanzania and the UAE (United Arab Emirates),” the report stated.

“This signals that coal cancellation makes space for renewable energy transitions and presents new economic opportunities for China and Global South partners.”

Kaynaklar

• South China Morning Post - Business