AUD/USD 0,7000 civarında baskı altında; Fed beklentileri USD’yi güçlendirmeye devam ediyor

Kısaca

AUD/USD 0,7000 yakınında baskı altında; PMI 49,3 ve hizmetler 51,4 olarak netleşti Güvenli numune: Fed faiz artırımı beklentileri güç kazanıyor; RBA hawkish tutum sürdürüyor Piyasa yakında kritik seviyeler ve ticaret akışları için izlenecek: destek/direnç kırılımları önemli olacak

Ana mesele

AUD/USD 0,7000 seviyesinin yakınında baskı altında kalıyor; USD güçleniyor

Ne değişti?

Fed beklentileri güçlenirken AUD/USD’de baskı sürdü

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Döviz hareketleri ithalat maliyetlerini ve yatırım kararlarını etkileyebilir

Ne oldu?

AUD/USD 0,7000 yakınlarında baskı altında seyretmeye devam etti; USD kuvvetli kaldı

Neden şimdi?

Fed beklentileri ve RBA politikasına ilişkin ayrışmalar etkili oldu

Neden önemli?

Döviz çiftlerinde volatilite ve maliyet baskısı küresel ticaret ile yatırımları etkileyebilir

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Küresel yatırımcılar
• İhracat/ithalat yapan firmalar

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Döviz piyasaları ve uluslararası ticaret üzerinde baskı

Riskler

• Dolar güçlenmesi sürerse AUD daha zayıf kalabilir
• RBA politika iletişiminin değişimi etkileyebilir
• küresel risk iştahında dalgalanma

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• Fed faiz kararlarına göre yeni yön
• RBA iletişimi ve enflasyon verileri
• PMI ve enflasyon verilerinin güncel durumu
• teknik seviye kırılımları ve destekler

Haberin tamamı

AUD/USD’s decline has come just short of the 0.7000 contention zone.The US Dollar remains bid on the back of rising Fed rate hike bets.The Australian jobs report came in mixed in August.The Australian Dollar (AUD) has remained on the defensive for the fourth consecutive day on Thursday, motivating AUD/USD to come under extra pressure and flirt with the key 0.7000 zone.Indeed, spot has suffered once again the persistent buying interest of the US Dollar (USD), which remained bolstered by steady speculation of further tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the second half of the year, rising yields and unabated uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict.Following the September tops near 0.7240, the pair appears to have started a downward move that is now testing the critical 200-day SMA around 0.7015. However, the bar for a sustained and deeper retracement seems pretty high considering the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) hawkish policy bias and still elevated consumer prices at home.Australia’s economy remains resilient despite signs of slowing momentumAustralia’s economy continues to compare favourably with many of its G10 peers, supported by domestic demand and positive economic growth. Persistent inflation also supports the RBA’s cautious, data-dependent policy stance.However, business activity seems to have lost some momentum after preliminary data showed the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for Manufacturing cooling to 49.3 in September and easing to 51.4 when it comes to Services, from 52.0 and 53.2, respectively.Trade data provided another positive signal: Australia recorded an A$1.923 billion surplus in July, adding to the A$2.341 billion surplus registered in June.Growth figures were less encouraging, however. Indeed, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by 0.4% QoQ in the second quarter of 2026, up from 0.3%, while annual growth came in at 2.1%, down from the previous 2.5% yearly expansion.The labour market also showed mixed signs in August, with the Unemployment Rate rising to 4.6% and Employment Change increasing by 39.5K, reversing July’s nearly 16K drop.Inflation remains the main constraint, with July data showing price pressures running well above the RBA’s 2%-3% target band, suggesting that the return to target could remain uneven and prolonged. That said, the headline inflation eased to 3.5% in July (from 3.8%), while underlying price pressures tracked by the Trimmed Mean held steady at 3.6%.The Melbourne Institute’s Consumer Inflation Expectations measure reinforced that view, holding steady at 4.9% in September.The figures leave the RBA’s inflation task incomplete. Policymakers expect inflation to return to target only in early 2028, maintaining the emphasis on patience rather than an imminent policy pivot.China offers stability, but little support for the AussieChina is providing stability for the Australian economy, but not the growth impulse that has supported the Australian Dollar during previous expansions.The Chinese economy grew by 4.3% YoY in the April-June period, while Industrial Production growth regained traction, expanding by 5.2% YTD, and the trade surplus widened to $119.1 billion in July, supported by decent increases in both imports and exports. However, on the downside, consumer spending remained sluggish after Retail Sales rose by only 0.4 % from a year earlier.In addition, business surveys presented a mixed picture: the National Bureau of Statistics reported that the Manufacturing PMI improved to 49.8 in August from 49.2, while the Services PMI remained unchanged at 49.0. On the other hand, private measures like RatingDog remain in expansionary territory, with Manufacturing at 51.5 (from 50.9) and Services at 51.4 (from 50.4).Disinflationary pressures seem to have taken a breather in August, with the CPI gaining 0.8% YoY, up from 0.5%, while prices rose by 0.4% on a monthly basis. Producer Prices rose by 3.8% over the previous twelve months, down from the 3.5% increase recorded in the previous month.The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) left its Loan Prime Rates unchanged early on Monday, maintaining the one-year rate at 3.00% and the five-year rate at 3.50%.China is therefore neither providing a major boost nor creating a significant drag. Unless the data reveal a clearer acceleration or deterioration, its influence on AUD/USD is likely to remain limited.The RBA maintains a hawkish bias despite softer growthThe RBA left its Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged on August 11 and retained a clear tightening bias, citing above-target inflation and upside risks to the outlook. The decision to hold rates was unanimous.The Minutes maintained that cautious but hawkish stance. Several officials warned that inflation risks could materialise, which would leave the Board ready to raise rates. Potential sources of pressure include increased investment in data centres, cost pass-through and higher energy prices.Policymakers discussed a 25-basis-point increase but concluded that the current policy setting was sufficiently restrictive. They also acknowledged more balanced risks, including falling house prices and the possibility that inflation could decline without causing significant damage to employment.Fresh GDP, labour-market and inflation figures are expected before the September meeting, leaving policy dependent on the incoming data.So far, investors are pricing in roughly 42 basis points of tightening by year-end and expect the RBA to hike the OCR by 25 basis points at its meeting on September 29.AUD/USD outlook: Bulls need to reclaim 0.7200Baseline outlookThe medium-term outlook has deteriorated in the last few weeks, as the pair remains unable to regain upside traction in a sustained manner. While above the 200-day SMA (0.7019), the pair should keep its constructive tone unchanged. Against this backdrop, some consolidation in the short-term horizon should not be ruled out. Of note, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching the oversol

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Kaynaklar

• FXStreet