ABD-İran görüşmeleri Hormuz Boğazı için aşamalı anlaşma peşinde; baskılar sürüyor

Kısaca

ABD-İran görüşmeleri aşamalı uzlaşı fikri etrafında seyrediyor; baskılar sürüyor Küresel enerji akışı ve piyasa güveni bu anlaşmanın yönünden doğrudan etkilenebilir Enerji fiyatları ve USD/DXY hareketleri üzerinde baskı/etki potansiyeli

Ana mesele

ABD ve İran arasında Hormuz Boğazı için aşamalı bir anlaşma çabası sürüyor

Ne değişti?

Görüşmelerin aşamalı bir uzlaşı yönünde ilerlediği belirtiliyor; taraflar karşılıklı esneklik arayışında

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Piyasalar riskli varlıklar için temkinli bir yaklaşım benimseyebilir

Ne oldu?

ABD-İran görüşmeleri aşamalı uzlaşı fikri etrafında seyrediyor; baskılar sürüyor

Neden şimdi?

Orta dönem seçimleri öncesi siyasi mesajlar ve ekonomik yaptırımlar dengelemesi etkili

Neden önemli?

Küresel enerji akışı ve piyasa güveni bu anlaşmanın yönünden doğrudan etkilenebilir

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Enerji piyasaları ve petrol ithalatı olan ülkeler
• Uluslararası finansal piyasalar
• ABD ve İran’a yakın ülkeler

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Enerji fiyatları ve USD/DXY hareketleri üzerinde baskı/etki potansiyeli

Riskler

• Görüşmelerin başarısız olması halinde yaptırımların derinleşmesi
• Jeopolitik risklerin artması
• Piyasalarda volatilitenin yükselmesi

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• Gelişmelerde tarafların tavırları
• Yaptırımlar ve kısıtlamalarda olası esneklik
• Enerji arzı ve sevkıyatında beklenen değişiklikler

Haberin tamamı

According to Reuters, US and Iranian negotiators are discussing a phased agreement to end the conflict.The potential deal suggests that, in the first phase, Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the US lifting its economic blockade and granting access to frozen Iranian assets.However, negotiations are stalling as neither side wants to surrender its leverage, according to comments to Reuters from two Iranian sources.In the meantime, US President Donald Trump said that he thinks the US and Iran could reach a deal after the midterm elections to the US Congress on November 3.Market's reaction:The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the buck against six peers, is up 0.10% at 101.21, but well below the high of the day (HOD) reached at 101.37.West Texas Intermediate, the US crude benchmark, retreated from around daily highs near $95.80, down to $93.08.WTI daily chart

What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets?

In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.

What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics?

Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.

Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"?

The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.

Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"?

The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.

Kaynaklar

• FXStreet